The Decline of the Consumer Climate Continues

Nuremberg, February 26, 2025 - After a false start in January, consumer sentiment continues its negative trend in February. Although economic expectations rose slightly, income expectations and willingness to buy fall for the second time in a row. The willingness to save, on the other hand, shows slight increases. As a result, the Consumer Climate for March 2025 falls by 2.1 points compared to the previous month (revised -22.6 points) to -24.7 points. These are the current findings of the GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM which has been published jointly by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), founder of GfK, since October 2023.

In addition to the downward trend in income expectations and willingness to buy, a rising willingness to save also contributes to the decline in the Consumer Climate: the willingness to save increases by 1.2 points, climbing to 9.4 points.

"The current figures show no signs of a recovery in consumer sentiment in Germany. The Consumer Climate has been stagnating at a low level since the middle of last year. There is still a great deal of uncertainty among consumers and a lack of planning security," explains Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM. "A fast formation of a new federal government after the parliamentary elections and the rapid approval of this year's budget would give both companies and private households more certainty when it comes to planning. This would create important conditions for consumers to be more willing to spend money and to revive consumption.”

Income expectations fall to 13-month low in February

For the second time in a row, consumers expect their personal financial situation to worsen over the next 12 months. The indicator loses 4.3 points compared to January, falling to -5.4 points. The last time a lower value was measured was in January 2024: At that time, income expectations were at -20 points.
Thus, this February, the income indicator continues its downward trend that began in the middle of last year. "Our deep-dive analyses show the reasons for this gloomy income outlook. The main reasons given are higher prices, an uncertain economic and political situation and dissatisfaction with politics," adds Rolf Bürkl.

Declining income expectations and an increasing willingness to save hinder the propensity to buy

In February, the willingness to buy remains wedged between declining income prospects and a rising willingness to save. The indicator loses 2.7 points and currently stands at -11.1 points. The last time the value was worse was 8 months ago: -13 points were measured in June 2024.
Reports of impending factory closures, the relocation of production abroad and job cuts in German industry, particularly among car manufacturers and their suppliers, lead to increasing concerns about job security. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the number of corporate bankruptcies has risen significantly because of the weak overall economic development and is expected to continue to rise. As a result, many households will continue to spend cautiously.

Economic pessimism falls slightly in February

In contrast to income expectations and willingness to buy, Germans are currently somewhat more positive about the economic outlook for the next 12 months. After an increase of 2.8 points, the economic indicator has risen to 1.2 points.
2025 threatens to be another weak year for the economy. Experts do not rule out the possibility of a third consecutive year of recession. This would be unprecedented in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Planned publication dates 1st half of 2025 (CET):

• Friday, 28.03.2025, 8:00 a.m.
• Tuesday, 29.4.2025, 8:00 a.m.
• Tuesday, 27.5.2025, 2025, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, 26.6.2025, 8:00 a.m.

About our method

The survey period for the current analysis was from January 30 to February 10, 2025. The results are extracted from the “GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews per month conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in the form of graphics accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. Depending on the definition used, however, retail accounts for only around 30 percent of private consumer spending. Services, travel, housing costs, healthcare services, and the wellness sector as a whole account for the rest. Again, this does not apply to retail sales, but instead to total consumer spending. Like all other indicators, willingness to buy is a confidence indicator. It indicates whether consumers currently consider it advisable to make larger purchases. Even if they answer “Yes” to this question, there are two further requirements for making a purchase: The consumer must have both money required for such a large purchase and must also see a need to make this purchase. Furthermore, this only concerns durable consumer goods that also require a larger budget.

GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM

The GfK Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK. By joining forces, it will be possible to invest further in the analysis and development of the Consumer Climate study to gain an even better understanding of the background to changes in consumer confidence.

Media Contact:
GfK:  Corina Kirchner, T +49 911 395 4570, corina.kirchner@nielseniq.com
NIM: Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system.

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK.
Further information is available at https://www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

For questions and further information on the press release, please contact:

Sandra Lades (legally responsible for content according to the German press laws)
Head of Communication & Events
Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V.
Founder of GfK
Steinstr. 21 / 90419 Nuremberg / Germany
communication@nim.org
T: +49 911 951519-89
E:  sandra.lades@nim.org